Business activity in South Africa is set to be disrupted further on the back of heightened rotational power cuts after Eskom ramped up load shedding to Stage 6 indefinitely as demand soars due to the inclement weather.
Eskom yesterday started implementing Stage 4 load shedding during morning peak hours, which then got ramped up to Stage 6 during evening peak hours as a result of loss of generation capacity.
The utility said it was forced to shed the load on the grid due to the loss of additional generating units overnight, the extensive use of Open Gas Cycle Turbines (OCGTs), and the inability to replenish pumped storage dam levels.
A day before, Eskom noted delays in returning units to service, and increased demand was adding additional strain to the power system.
The country was engulfed by snow earlier this week as temperatures dropped below zero, which increased the strain on the grid as people consumed more electricity to keep warm.
Independent energy analyst Lungile Mashele said this resulted in increased demand, which has seen us go from 31 000MW of demand last week to 33 900MW on the 11th of July.
Mashele said this additional 3 000MW of demand was what has led to increased load shedding.
“Increased load shedding was always in the wings mainly because of reduced demand and favourable weather. Winter temperatures hit Gauteng this week, which is a major load centre,” Mashele said.
“The outlook will most likely improve over the weekend when there's reduced demand and a replenishment of diesel and pumped storage.
“We must note that there's nothing extraordinary about these temperatures. These are typical for winter. Eskom did forecast this level of demand. The only question is how are they going to manage this demand and their supply.”
This comes just days after Electricity Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa applauded Eskom for having salvaged the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) to 60% in June from 53% earlier in the year.
Ramokgopa attributed the lower levels of load shedding enjoyed in June to lower-than-expected demand as electricity consumption reached a high of 31 000MW in mid-winter, lower than a peak of 34 000MW projected earlier in the year.
At the same time, Ramokgopa said there were also fewer unplanned breakdowns of generation units, which were limited to around 4 000MW, allowing Eskom to implement load shedding ranging between stages 2 and 4.
Economists have forecast that the economy likely managed to hold on to growth in the second quarter as Eskom reduced the frequency and duration of power outages over the winter.
However, Nedbank economist Johannes Khosa said these improvements were likely temporary, with load shedding intensifying as Eskom increases maintenance over the summer and some large industrial users ramp up production.
Khosa said exports would, therefore, come under renewed pressure, hurt not only by more severe load shedding but also by the country’s other structural constraints, weaker global demand and lower international commodity prices.
“Load shedding will likely worsen during the second half of the year when temperatures rise, Eskom resumes more frequent summer maintenance, and the heavy-energy users in the manufacturing sector return some units to operation from a winter maintenance break,” Khosa said.
“Renewable energy projects are also gradually feeding into the grid, which is great news. However, power shortages will take longer to resolve due to the still-low operational efficiency at Eskom, which supplies around 88% of total power.”
Meanwhile, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) in the Highveld Region yesterday said it was deeply disappointed by the posture taken by the decommissioning of Komati Power Station in Mpumalanga.
The coal-fired Komati Power Station in Mpumalanga reached the end of its operating life in October 2022 and was shut down after serving South Africa since 1961.
Komati will now be converted into a renewable generation site powered with 150MW of solar, 70MW of wind and 150MW of storage batteries as part of the Just Energy Transition (JET) Strategy.
NUM Highveld Deputy Regional Secretary Thapelo Malekutu said this process had led to abject poverty in the Nkangala District and Mpumalanga as a whole.
‘’The residents of Steve Tshwete and Emalahleni municipality relied heavily on this power station for their survival, as we know that the level of unemployment is high. The unilateral decommissioning of Komati perpetuated the situation of inequality, unemployment and poverty,’’ Malekutu said.
‘’The decommissioning does not address the triple challenges of poverty, inequality and unemployment. In fact, the decommissioning is in paradox with the intention of addressing triple challenges.’’
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