Copper steadied on Monday as investors weighed concern about demand in top consumer China, where the key property sector has cooled, against an improved outlook in the US, the world's largest economy.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was little changed at $8,501 per tonne by 12:09 SA time, from $8,510 at the close on Friday. The metal lost nearly 1 percent last week and has been largely range-bound for the past two weeks.
It gained nearly 12 percent in the first two months of the year as central banks in the developed world pumped money into their economies, China restocked and risks related to Europe's debt crisis receded.
“We had a strong high in January and then China got to the new year and its a traditional seasonal lull (in demand) so things calmed down and copper stayed range bound,” said VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov.
“When China comes back, and they will come back, copper is set to benefit. (Also) the US economy is fairly positive, that has helped
equities and is good as far as base metals are concerned.”
Denting copper, Chinese home prices fell in February from January for a fifth consecutive month and are expected to continue heading lower in coming months.
A cooler property market not only depresses demand for base metals as construction materials, but also dampens consumption from the home appliances sector, another key consumer of copper.
China cut its growth target for 2012 earlier this month, but its top planning agency has vowed to keep relatively fast growth as its
economic policy priority.
In the US meanwhile, a spate of recent data has shown a nascent economic recovery, and some in the market are growing increasingly hopeful that the recovery will gather pace.
“The discussion in the metals markets recently revolved around the outlook for the Chinese economy and Chinese metals demand. This week, the focus could shift to the Western World, with US housing data on the calendar,” said Credit Suisse in a note.
“We believe that the data will show a moderate improvement from very low levels of activity. Combined with still falling metals inventories at the LME, we think this could open the way for moderate price gains.”
SLIDE
LME copper stocks continued to slide, with latest data showing stock down 1,250 tonnes at 262,575 tonnes, their lowest since July
2009, with more than 30 percent of those stocks set to leave warehouses shortly.
Analysts suspect the metal is not being consumed but is building up in China instead. Data on Friday showed Shanghai stocks up 2,495 tonnes to a decade high of 227,276 tonnes
“The credit that the government has injected into the market since December now exists largely in the form of copper stocks. We haven't seen any solid recovery in consumption,” said Bonnie Liu, an analyst at Macquarie in Shanghai.
In other metals, packaging material aluminium edged up 0.53 percent to $2,269 a tonne from $2,257. Prices have risen nearly 12
percent so far this year, after an 18-percent decline in 2011.
Oversupply, slower demand and higher costs have dealt a heavy blow to aluminium producers.
United Company RUSAL Plc, the world's top aluminium producer, reported a 92 percent drop in yearly net profit while Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (Chalco) said its fourth-quarter net loss was bigger than expected.
Soldering metal tin rose 0.21 percent to $23,450 a tonne from $23,400, zinc, used in galvanizing, was flat at $2,078, battery material lead fell 0.14 percent to $2,105 from $2,108, while stainless-steel ingredient nickel fell 0.05 percent to $18,890 from $18,900. - Reuters