The copper theft barometer‚ as measured by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci)‚ eased to a level of R17 million in August from R19.7 million in July‚ R17.9 million in June and R23 million in May.
The July rise was the first monthly increase in the series since the recent spike of R34.7 million in March.
The copper theft volume indicator recorded a level of 273 tons in August from 315 tons in July and 288 tons in June.
The international spot price of copper increased to an estimated average of $8‚076 per metric ton in September from the $7‚509 average in August. This is the first significant turnaround in the general downward trend in the international price of copper that started in the second quarter of 2012. The sudden increase is against the previously held outlook of a price decline to slightly above $7‚000 per metric ton by year-end. The change can be attributed to a slightly more positive economic outlook following negotiations for financial stability in the eurozone.
The value of exports of copper waste for June decreased by 10.8% on a monthly basis to US$39.2 million from the revised $43.9 million (previously $43.5 million)‚ and copper waste exports in July showed a further monthly decrease to $38 million. Export statistics in general have a high volatility and therefore changes level quite rapidly relative to other economic data series‚ but the long-term relationship between the international price of copper and South African copper export volume remain. Total copper waste exports internationally amounted to $27 billion in 2011‚ with SA accounting for 2.1% of the market share for the year.
The increase in the international price of copper is concerning since there is anecdotal evidence that the increasingly sophisticated copper theft syndicates respond to price changes in the metal. However‚ the authorities and the security industry are also becoming increasingly effective in fighting copper theft under the Second-hand Goods Act and more vigilant SAPS action. Sacci believes that the legislation will also become far more effective as it becomes institutionally entrenched in the everyday policing of SA.
The outlook for copper theft for the rest of 2012 remains on a downward trend with the possibility that relative lows of R10 million per month could be reached. - I-Net Bridge