On the eve of the tightly-contested 2024 general elections to be held on Wednesday, all eyes are on the economic heartbeat province of Gauteng which is currently led by the African National Congress (ANC).
Numerous polls and surveys have shown that the ANC will be given a good run for its money by opposition parties, particularly if it fails to garner the majority of 50 percent.
| ANC | 53.2% |
| DA | 24.53% |
| EFF | 13.53% |
| FF+ | 3.86% |
| IFP | 1.01% |
In the previous elections, in 2019, the ANC retained the province with a razor-slim majority of 53.2 percent of the vote, a decline from 54.92 percent in 2014.
The ANC was followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) which garnered less than 25 percent, and the Economic Freedom Fighters led by Julius Malema commanded just over 13 percent in the province.
Speaking to IOL, political analyst Khanyi Magubane said the ANC has a strong candidate in provincial chairperson Panyaza Lesufi, but the Democratic Alliance (DA) equally has a strongman in former Tshwane executive mayor Solly Msimanga.
“First of all, I think provincially the ANC is looking at Gauteng, and there is definitely no doubt about it as is the DA because they have put out Solly Msimanga who comes from Tshwane.
“He (Msimanga) has been in local leadership and I do think the ANC is not willing to go into a coalition at the provincial level.
“The ANC is already in coalitions at local levels and we all know how that is playing out. I definitely think the ANC has a lot to answer for, in terms of the state of the province when it comes to delivery and the implementation of programmes both at the provincial and local levels,” she said.
Magubane said the daily lived experience of Gauteng residents will inspire how they vote.
“Gautengers are sick and tired of robots that do not work. Not having load shedding has actually exposed the poor state of infrastructure in the province. I think things like that will shift them hard in the province.
“My prediction is that the ANC in Gauteng… I am not so sure but they could go into a coalition. They could possibly go into an ANC, DA, I am not sure about the EFF but I think Herman Mashaba would also come on board.
“Julius Malema could join a coalition at a provincial level, which means that we may not have another ANC premier in the province – if the ANC gets into coalition with other parties,” she said.
Factors eating into the ANC’s support base include growing discontent on service delivery, allegations of corruption and maladministration, and load shedding.
IOL also spoke to political analyst Professor Sipho Seepe who said the ANC in Gauteng faces a real risk of building the next administration in a coalition.
However, Seepe said the ANC has something that any other party does not have.
“The ANC, even at this moment, still has a lot of support because it has what other parties do not have. It has historical, political and social capital, and it relies on that.
“It is also a party of liberation compared to others. The PAC is another one, but the PAC has almost fizzled into a non-entity. The ANC still has a good chance of outperforming all other parties, but in doing so that, there is no doubt that its support is declining.
“It is a case of winning with a declining margin. Then you have parties like the DA which has consistently shown its presence in the metros, and the Economic Freedom Fighters.
“Now you have the entry of the MK (Umkhonto we Sizwe) and it is also possible that if these (opposition) parties were to ignore their egos, should they want to form a coalition, the opposition parties in Gauteng can still form a coalition government.
“The ANC in Gauteng is facing the risk where it will not win with an outright majority – that much is known,” said Seepe.
The metros in Gauteng are run by coalitions and informal backings including the DA, the ANC, the EFF, the Patriotic Alliance, and the Al Jama-ah party.
Regarding the ANC’s front-man in Gauteng, Seepe said Lesufi has a strong brand in the province.
“He is a better performing premier compared to other premiers of the ANC. He has managed to build his own profile and he has been able to say the things that the leadership of the ANC may not be able to say.
“There is an element of activism on his part to try and resolve the problem. This is also something that people will appreciate,” said Seepe.
“He may not have come up with perfect solutions but the fact that he continues to try to find a solution to the challenges faced, especially by young people, is also very positive.
“His attitude towards small to medium enterprises operating in the township is also something that people align to.
“So, he has made the correct noise. Unfortunately, the ANC is being undermined at a national level. To that extent, he is one of the almost attractive individuals within the ANC,” said Seepe.
IOL