With the Gauteng ballot counting over 60% complete by Friday afternoon, it became clear that no political party would achieve a clear majority in the province.
At the time of writing, the African National Congress (ANC) held 33.37% of the vote, giving it a narrow lead over the Democratic Alliance (DA), which had amassed 28.92%, while parties such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and MK Party were emerging as king makers, with respective tallies of 12.84% and 9.42%.
But the big question on everyone’s lips is: who will lead the coalition that seems inevitable in South Africa’s economic heartland?
The DA is part of the Multi Party Charter (MPC) that also includes ActionSA (4.16% at last count) as well as the Freedom Front Plus (2.42%) and a few smaller parties that have so far amassed under 1% each. It’s unlikely, given the current numbers, that the MPC grouping will have more than 38% of the vote collectively, which means they’d likely need to form an alliance with Julius Malema’s EFF in order to attain a majority government in Gauteng.
Of course, the ANC could also theoretically edge past the finish line if it struck a deal with the EFF and one or two smaller parties.
Political analyst Dr Bheki Mngomezulu told IOL that the issue of coalition is a very difficult one as there will be serious discussions and differences of opinion within both the ANC and DA.
However, given the current numbers, the DA appears to stand a better chance of putting together a coalition than the ANC does, Mngomezulu believes.
The EFF remains as much of a wild card, as it does a king maker, particularly given its reputation for not going the full distance with previous coalitions.
But could the Multi Party Charter work together with the EFF?
At least one of its members feels that could be plausible.
ActionSA Provincial Executive Committee Member Reuben Masango believes there is a possible path to leadership for the MPC in Gauteng. The Charter also has a running start of sorts because coalition discussions, within the MPC, have already taken place.
Masango told IOL he felt it would be easier to negotiate a coalition with the EFF on a provincial level than it would be on a national level, although the resulting government would have to ultimately serve the people first and foremost, and be approved by the party’s national leadership.
However, as they’ve stated before, ActionSA would never enter a coalition with the ANC.
“We strongly believe that we are where we are because of them, so once you bring them in, it will always bring back the problems that we are trying to resolve,” Masango told IOL.
However, it appears that its biggest alliance partner, the DA, is keeping all options on the table, at least on a national level.
Its Council Federal chairperson Helen Zille told IOL on Friday that the DA working with the ANC “was one of many potential options”, given that the latter is projected to fall below 50%.
But what happens if none of the political parties can agree on a coalition?
In that case a minority government is still legally possible, in which the party with the most votes still takes office, but many political analysts believe it would be extremely difficult for such a government to function, as opposition parties would be able to gang up on it and block anything from laws to budgets, that need to be passed through legislature.
With the ANC remaining mum on who it might enter into coalitions with, in the 14 days following the election, the future political landscape is anything but clear at this stage. But if there were bookmakers in politics it’s unlikely they’d be betting too firmly on the ANC retaining power in Gauteng.
IOL