Siyabonga Hadebe
Now that the ANC has finally reached its lowest point after dipping below 40% in the polls, the election outcome needs to be interpreted within its rightful context.
The ANC’s underwhelming performance represents two extremes but fulfils a crucial goal: to change the South African political landscape like the Nationalist Party was laid to rest to make way for the ANC.
Owing to the ANC’s misdemeanours, especially in the eyes of the black majority, the first extreme is the anti-ANC sentiment, which entails the jubilation at seeing the backs of “sellouts” and “thieves”.
However, this has no clear goal and could result in dejection for those who voted for parties like the EFF and uMkhonto weSizwe Party just to spite the ANC. What will soon become clear for everyone is that this anyone-but-the-ANC sentiment is not well-planned and lacks cohesion or vision.
Deliberating on the sentiment is mainly unproductive, as it lacks depth in addressing the complexities of black-led political discourses and geopolitical dynamics. While the emergence of the MK Party and the EFF has contributed to reducing the ANC’s majority below 50%, the goal remains unclear, overshadowed by mere excitement. This new political landscape is unlikely to resolve the underlying issues of ANC indifference and the party’s competency deficiency.
The black majority’s cry for a “second independence” in South Africa will not be addressed any time soon. As the dust settles, frustrated and elated black voters will come to understand elections for what they are: a vote-and-regret cycle that has no real meaning in their lives or the attainment of freedom.
Elections are a game of fools designed to manipulate the mind into believing life will improve after casting a vote. From 1994 to date, it is increasingly evident that elections are just a smokescreen.
The second and most frightening extreme represents a global neo-liberal power play aimed at creating “system-friendly” governments across the world. The method has succeeded worldwide and is responsible for the political meltdown in Ukraine after the ousting of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014.
A leaked SSA dossier, contested in courts, reportedly unveiled how the US obtained intelligence on top South African political parties to determine the country’s long-term political outcomes. This includes forging a coalition between the ANC and the DA, which is now a possibility but with its catches.
It is necessary to point out that many events have been occurring in the blindside of South Africa’s national politics for a while and are challenging to explain. They point in a specific direction nonetheless. These do not involve a single individual or political party. However, several actors appear to be in cahoots toward a particular goal.
The national discourse has smoothed divisions between political parties and favoured a specific direction: creating a liberal party to replace the ANC as the dominant party. That time is upon us — the ground is fertile for this grand coalition to happen. The plan anticipated the fragmentation of the ANC and its loss in the polls, which would then culminate in a new liberal dispensation in South Africa.
According to this perspective, the ANC must be retired after running its course. Alternatively, the assertion is that it has failed to govern and must be punished in the polls. Although the two statements appear to be different, they mean the same. They offer no alternative to the ANC because the liberal project is a desired goal at the end of the day. Even if this were not to happen, the grand plan also suggests that there may be no need to wait for the ANC to lose in the polls; somewhat, it must be split to allow neo-liberals to lead South Africa.
The neo-liberal agenda points to individuals across political parties and racial divisions as suitors. Neo-liberal ideology has always been associated with whites in South Africa, while blacks have mainly aligned with left-leaning ideas for historical reasons. A rehearsed script exists to create a liberal party or dispensation in South Africa. The predetermined election outcome will catalyse a new party led by Cyril Ramaphosa from an ANC-DA merger after the ANC decides to fire him.
Figures like Helen Zille have quickly rolled out the plan, perhaps to claim the glory. However, those behind the idea appear patient and brutal enough to set it into motion. The time is almost ripe for a liberal party. Herman Mashaba and Mmusi Maimane, among others, remain way too hopeful since they believe they are the ones to lead the project, yet they are not the anointed ones. The money pumped into Bosa, ActionSA and Rise Mzansi was a decoy to conceal the real intentions.
At the end of 2018, DA MP Toby Chance introduced the idea of a coalition between moderates within the ANC and the DA to stave off tyranny. He suggested that such a coalition would be necessary “if the country is to avoid a descent into despotism”. Chance further added that to avoid the unpleasant scenario, the ANC would need to split.
The perspective emerged a year after the ANC narrowly avoided a split in 2017 when Ramaphosa defeated Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma to become president. Following this, data surfaced, indicating that had Ramaphosa failed to win; a new political party would have been formed.
In July 2019, EFF leader Julius Malema also revealed that had informed the EFF that if Dlamini Zuma had won the ANC leadership battle, a new political party was planned to be formed. Before the 2022 ANC elective conference, there were unconfirmed claims that Derek Hanekom’s Renew SA party was to be launched, although the rumours were neither confirmed nor denied.
Evidence suggests a broader plan beyond just an ANC split. The DA and smaller parties collaborated to remove Zuma, causing disruptions in Parliament. However, the EFF's visibility decreased post-Zuma.
On the other hand, the DA has a clear preference for coalition partners. Chance proposed a coalition between moderate ANC factions and the DA, with the radical Left aligning with the EFF. He criticised the ANC’s 2017 conference resolutions, particularly opposing SA Reserve Bank nationalisation and land expropriation without compensation, due to economic concerns.
Chance’s ideas resonate with those in Leon Schreiber’s book “Coalition Country: South Africa after the ANC” (2018), suggesting coalitions could become the norm. However, Chance went further, openly suggesting an ANC split, which is now increasingly possible. Fikile Mbalula showed determination to address dissent and anarchy within the party.
In recent months, long-time member Carl Niehaus left the party to join the EFF before facing expulsion. In December last year, the MK Party emerged as a new player in the country’s political landscape, led by former ANC president Jacob Zuma. The new party outperformed the ANC in KZN and significantly reduced its majority in Parliament, Gauteng and Mpumalanga. The EFF also contributed to the ANC’s decline in the Northern Cape.
In response, the DA swiftly removed its leader, Maimane, blaming him for the party’s poor performance in the May 2019 national elections and for leading it in an undesirable direction.
Maimane and other black leaders in the DA were perceived as unsupportive of the party’s direction post the 2017 ANC conference under Ramaphosa. For instance, Maimane’s efforts to expose money laundering at the conference strained relations with party leadership, who remained silent on the financial matters.
Following the DA’s disastrous experimentation with young black leaders and love affair with Agang a few years earlier, the project of liberalism appeared to dive. Then, the DA brought back Zille to lead the party’s “renewal” process, effectively replacing Helen Suzman as a revered figure among South African white liberals.
In “Friends of The Natives: The Inconvenient Past of South African Liberalism” (2016), author and academic Professor Eddy Maloka refers to these whites as the “friends of the natives”. These friends of the natives find companionship in the “amazemtiti” class (black elites), who have always been at the forefront of entrenching neo-liberalism in black South Africa, including the introduction of the Freedom Charter in 1955 and other initiatives that misdirected the political ideals of the African majority.
Nonetheless, Zille’s return to the DA led to the resignation of its black leaders, effectively silencing the party’s emerging “black caucus”. Maimane’s strategy clashed with party expectations, prompting criticism from his successor, John Steenhuisen, who accused him of excessive ANC criticism and insufficient focus on solutions. Maimane defended his approach, citing the widespread opposition critique of the ANC under Zuma.
The fallout underscored the DA’s shift towards aligning more closely with the current ANC leadership. As someone puts it, Chance expressed concern over radical resolutions from the ANC's 2017 elective conference, labelling them as outdated ideologies that could lead to paralysis. He particularly criticised the ANC’s stance on nationalising the South African Reserve Bank and land expropriation without compensation, fearing it would deter investment and worsen unemployment and government debt.
While the DA has been attempting a “moonshot pact”, excluding the ANC and the EFF, ANC Veterans’ League convenor Snuki Zikalala and other prominent figures in the party advocate for the governing party to explore the grand coalition model, which would entail the ANC collaborating with the DA instead of the EFF. Richard Jurgens of Good Governance also believes that a “super coalition” is that which must bind the DA and ANC.
Hadebe is an independent commentator on socio-economic, political and global matters.
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