Johannesburg - The ANC in the three provinces it governs in which its provincial chairperson is not the premier has assured the incumbents that their jobs are safe – for now.
Gauteng's David Makhura, North West's Bushy Maape and Mpumalanga's Refilwe Mtshweni-Tsipane are not the governing party’s chairpersons in their respective provinces and speculation has been mounting that their new political bosses could remove them.
This came after the outcomes of the KwaZulu-Natal provincial conference effecting a change in leadership in government. Sihle Zikalala vacated his seat as premier after losing out at the conference. He was replaced by Nomusa Dube-Ncube.
Makhura’s fate will be decided after a series of consultations with ANC branches, including a cadres’ assembly to consolidate the province’s approach towards its national conference in December.
ANC Gauteng provincial chairperson, Panyaza Lesufi, said it was in the party’s interest to see where Makhura goes.
Should Makhura, a key ally of President Cyril Ramaphosa, leave, he is likely to be named in the national Cabinet, which has had a vacancy since April following the departure of former public service and administration minister Ayanda Dlodlo to be the World Bank’s group alternate executive director for Angola, Nigeria and South Africa.
He wants the next state of the province address to be delivered by a leader the ANC has identified to lead the government in Gauteng.
"It is my wish that in February next year, the state of the province address is not done by me, (but) it’s done by the next leader the ANC has identified,” Makhura said.
He has also been touted as a candidate for the position of secretary-general at the national conference, but has been coy about the matter, saying he was not looking for a position in the ANC’s national executive committee.
In the North West, where culpable homicide accused former ANC MP Nono Maloyi was elected provincial chairperson last month, the party said it hadn’t decided to remove Maape.
"The ANC provincial executive committee (PEC) is currently seized with the renewal programme of the organisation to unite and stabilise the province. Therefore, chop and change is not a priority among agenda items of the PEC,” ANC North West spokesperson, Tumelo Maruping, told Sunday Independent.
Maruping said the process of deployment, redeployment or removal is not aligned to conferences or events in the ANC.
"It is not cast in stone that post conferences such must happen. The ANC can take a decision anytime as long as that decision is informed by an assessment made by the structures,” he added.
Mtshweni-Tsipane has also been told she would keep her job after Mandla Ndlovu was elected ANC Mpumalanga chairperson earlier this year.
She was unsuccessful in her attempt to contest for the position at the provincial conference. Ndlovu’s election prompted a reshuffle in the provincial executive and he was appointed cooperative governance and traditional affairs MEC in May.
ANC Mpumalanga spokesperson Ngelosi Ndlovu said the PEC resolved that it wouldn’t interfere with the running of government and that there was no decision to recall Mtshweni-Tsipane.
Political analyst Professor Siphamandla Zondi said it had become a pattern that every time there has been a change of leadership in the ANC, it translates to some change of leadership in government.
He said this created an impression that contestation for leadership positions in the ANC is with an eye on being elevated into government, because it almost always happens.
"There is a possibility that there is power mongering and power hunger. There is nothing wrong with changing leadership to reflect new spirit, oomph, energy and commitment to certain things," he explained.
However, Zondi warned that the changes that follow conferences do have the ability to destabilise the government and render the state completely dependent on scenarios in the governing party.
Another political analyst, Sandile Swana, said recalling leaders were hardly ever based on poor performance but had to do with access to state resources.
"Now if you lose an election, the competing faction will recall you if there is no guarantee that you will channel resources to the faction,” he said.
According to Swana, the recall of former presidents Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma in 2008 and 2018, respectively, after national conferences, amounted to a bloodless coup d'état.
"All of that shows political immaturity in the ANC and that has created a culture of instability in the coalitions. This is because of the ANC culture of political opportunism and bribery of all political representatives,” he explained.
Swana said where there was alignment between the winning faction and the incumbent premier, there will be stability and that Makhura was out of alignment with the winning faction in Gauteng.