South Africa is forecast to be one of the countries with the fastest-growing domestic airline markets over the next three years. This is one of the conclusions reached by industry leaders at a conference in Singapore, according to a concensus report issued by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
They expect our domestic passenger market to grow at a rate of 10.6 percent a year over the next three years, nearly twice that of the majority of countries.
They expect the international airline passenger market as a whole to grow to 3.3 billion by 2014, which means 800 million more since 2009. The biggest growth is expected to come from China, followed by by the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Malaysia and Sri Lanka. Domestic passenger numbers all over the world are expected to rise from 1.5 billion in 2009 to more than 2 billion in 2014, an average of 5.7 percent. But South Africa’s domestic passenger market is expected to rise by 10.6 percent.
If it does, it will be partly due to our airlines investing in new aircraft. SAA has ordered Airbus A320s for domestic and regional routes, and took delivery last week of the first of six new long-range Airbus A330-200s with a seating capacity of about 250 passengers which, according to Siza Mzimela, the chief executive, will be used on international routes including London and South America. Encouragingly, they will fly from Cape Town as well as Johannesburg.
Both Airbus and its US rival, Boeing, are competing for orders from our airlines, who have realised they need new-generation, fuel-economic aircraft to compete in a market with rising fuel prices and environmental concerns about pollution and global warming. Comair is already in the process of changing its fleet to new-generation Boeing 737-800s - the first time it has bought new and not second-hand aircraft.
Gidon Novick, its joint chief executive, attributes the fact that it has increased its earnings in the six months to December to this change. It is using three of the new planes, which have enabled it to carry 24 percent more passengers in greater comfort while keeping costs down, at a time when airlines are paying higher airport taxes and air navigation fees in addition to paying more for fuel.
Low-cost airlines 1Time and Mango are also talking to both Boeing and Airbus. 1Time uses McDonnell Douglas MD 80s - Boeing took over McDonnell Douglas several years ago - and Rodney James, 1Time’s managing director, tells me he considers these the most comfortable aircraft available. But he has reluctantly decided that the need for fuel economy makes it necessary to acquire the new-generation aircraft that have become available. Mango subleases four Boeing 737-800s from its parent company, SAA, but is free to make other arrangements and wants to enlarge its fleet and its route network.
Incidentally, Comair’s low-cost division, kulula.com, is cashing in on worldwide interest in the wedding of Britain’s Prince William to Kate Middleton in April, with one of its amusingly cheeky advertisements offering to provide the prince with a herd of “the finest cows we can lay hands on” to pay lobola for his bride.
A herd of pedigree cows large enough for a future king to pay would be far from cheap, especially as kulula has offered to buy one already in the UK to avoid sending South African cows to such a cold climate, which would mean paying in sterling. Of course, there is little chance that the offer will be accepted - even if they appreciate the joke, British royals usually avoid any commercial connection and don’t normally accept gifts from people they don’t know.
But, on the other hand, the British royal family are patrons of a wide range of charitable causes and both Prince William and his brother, Prince Harry, have supported some in Africa. In view of this, they could, perhaps, decide to turn the joke on kulula by accepting the offer in order to donate the herd to one of these - possibly in southern Africa. However, if they do, kulula has already taken steps to limit its liability by suggesting that passengers shouild help to meet the cost by making a donation when they pay for their tickets. It has launched a range of cut-price fares under the name Royal Lobola Nice Flights, associating itself firmly with the wedding. That is really marketing! - Weekend Argus