In 2024, more than 60 countries faced elections and more than half of the world’s population experienced a change of leaders. Among these were several countries in the SADC region. South Africa, Mozambique and Namibia went through this democratic process.

Botswana experienced an unexpected change of guard, while South Africa transitioned into a Government of National Unity. Meanwhile, the US saw a change of leadership, which has led to the second coming of Donald Trump.

The Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) recently toppled the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), reducing its 58-year post-independence dominance to just four seats out of 61. This was not only rapturous in decibels and humiliating for the BDP, but it also disrupted the global trend of elderly leaders dominating politics. Botswana joined the lone trendsetters of Rwanda and the military Sankarian model in the Sahel. The winds of change are here.

The victory was shocking not only to the BDP, but also to the UDC, which had not anticipated such a sweeping victory. In the absence of forward-looking polling in Botswana, the outcome of the secret vote could not have been anticipated. Expectations were that Botswana’s former President Mokgweetsi Masisi would at least perform no worse than in the last election, where he secured 52% of the vote. So, the question is did the voters surprise themselves? Not at all. “Secret” societies do not surprise themselves. However, Botswana is not a secret society—it follows its own rhythm, a rhythm that was displayed about two centuries ago.

While the theft of the Free State from Lesotho is well-documented, the issue is not about the theft of Thaba Nchu by the Moroka, but on how we contextualise the responses from Thaba Nchu and Lehurutshe, bringing them forward to the 2024 elections and the fractured relationship between Masisi and Ian Khama (Khama was the former Botswana President before Masisi).

Looking to history, the raging wars between King Moshoeshoe of Lesotho and the Afrikaner-British alliance from 1833 to 1855 in the Mohokare Basin offers insights to the current status quo. One such war revolved around Thaba Nchu. Much has been written about the sporadic battles there.

Ultimately, the victory led by Hlomellang oa Lioli Mashupha, Moshoeshoe’s son, over the combined forces of Moroka, the Afrikaners, the British, and the Korana provides context for understanding Botswana’s 2024 election and the humiliating defeat of the BDP.

Adding to this context is Mzilikazi’s attack on the Batswana in Lehurutshe. The Basotho warriors’ victory was memorialised as Tihela ea Barolong. In Thaba Nchu, the Batswana community threw themselves off the cliffs rather than face advancing Basotho forces. A similar response occurred in Lehurutshe, where Batswana fled into caves and many died from hunger.

The Basotho were proudly victorious, priding themselves on driving the Batswana over the cliffs. However, a different interpretation is possible: the Batswana would rather not give the Basotho the benefit of slaying them by self-preserving their dignity and in a class action committing suicide. (Unfortunately, Botswana currently has the highest suicide rate globally.)

What does this mean in the context of the recent unexpected election outcome? Faced with the fractious relationship between Masisi and Khama, the Batswana, rather than choosing between factions of the 58-year-old BDP, preserved themselves by leaving the BDP to self-destruct. Acting without coordination, they behaved like a secret society, surprising everyone, but themselves.

Faced with adversity, joint action seems to be an antidote to Batswana. Duma Boko was elected the country's first president not from the ruling party, hence, opening a new chapter after 58 years, remaining a shining example of a nation free from coups or attempted coups. The defeat of the BDP was immediately accepted by Masisi, marking a peaceful and significant transition.

Dr Pali Lehohla is a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, a Research Associate at Oxford University, a board member of Institute for Economic Justice at Wits and a distinguished Alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former Statistician-General of South Africa

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