Oslo - The world's shipping industry has taken on board the vulnerability of its fleets to possible terror attacks, but measures to protect commercial vessels amount to a drop in the ocean.
As governments seek to protect potential attack targets, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), a UN body, has told ship owners they must implement a set of stringent measures by next year or face severe restrictions on their movements.
Tankers, cargo ships, container ships and other large vessels must obtain the IMO's International Ship and Port Facility Security certificate by July 1 2004 or will no longer be admitted into foreign ports.
Although a bomb attack against the French supertanker Limburg in October 2002, killing one and injuring 12, brought home the potential for havoc on the seas, only about a dozen of the world's eligible 30 000 ships over 500 tons have so far qualified for the certificate.
"There is a lot of work to be done. The challenge is to accelerate the process and complete everything," said Tor Svensen, the vice-president at Det Norske Veritas (DNV), one of the main classification companies.
The IMO measures include stricter control of access to ships and ports, no-go zones, video surveillance, improved lighting around vessels, the installation of required equipment on board, a security officer on every ship and an emergency procedure plan.
Experts see the chances of anything major happening as slim but far from impossible.
"If terrorists want to use a tanker as a bomb, it's not that difficult," said DNV maritime safety specialist Oivin Lorentzen.
"We've never seen that happen, but we had never seen things like what happened on September 11 in the US."
Experts believe any attack on a ship would be designed to create maximum damage, for example by paralysing shipping routes or creating an ecological disaster.
"They may sink it in a channel to stop the traffic, they may blow it up to create pollution, they may blow it up in a harbour to destroy it," Lorentzen said.
Attackers may also seek to smuggle bombers or gunmen on board a ship, which is why port security is high on the agenda.
Ship owners acknowledge they run the risk of a last-minute rush to get the crucial certificate.
"We underestimated the problems a last-minute rush could create," admits Rune Karlsen, head of a Norwegian ship owners' association, adding the new rules were not always easy to interpret.
In Norway, which runs the third-largest commercial fleet with 1 600 vessels, just a handful of ships have won the certificate.
"We may have a problem if things don't speed up, but if we start now, we should manage."
The price tag for the required changes is up to $60 000 a vessel and owners should also not harbour any hopes for extra time.
"There is no suggestion the deadline will be extended. The members don't want that," the IMO's Lee Adamson said.