Some trucking companies may be forced to close due to high oil prices.
Image: Freepik
South Africans already struggling to afford basic food may face another wave of price pressure as surging diesel costs ripple through the agricultural and logistics sectors, raising concerns about food inflation, supply disruptions and even transport company failures.
The wholesale price of 50ppm diesel climbed to about R31.54 a litre at the coast and R32.30 in Gauteng on May 6 following the latest fuel hikes, with the Road Freight Association warning that some operators may be forced to consider business closures if costs continue escalating.
These prices correlate to increases in oil prices, with Brent crude having recently breached $120.
The concern stretches far beyond filling stations.
Diesel is effectively embedded throughout South Africa’s food system — powering tractors, irrigation pumps, harvesters, refrigeration, warehousing and the trucks that move food across the country.
Higher diesel prices are already raising the cost of planting, irrigation, harvesting and transport, while fertiliser prices remain elevated due to ongoing global supply disruptions.Transport alone can account for between 10% and 15% of the final retail price of food, depending on the product and the distance travelled.
That creates a direct link between fuel price shocks and supermarket shelves. The timing is especially difficult for low-income households already under severe financial pressure.
According to the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice & Dignity Group’s latest Household Affordability Index, the average household food basket across Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town, Springbok, Pietermaritzburg and Mtubatuba cost R5,452.09 in April.
The group found that families living on low incomes may already be underspending on basic nutrition by at least 18%, with the cost of a basic nutritious diet for a family of seven reaching R6,618.99 a month.
Its research also found that workers earning the national minimum wage face severe affordability pressures after transport and electricity costs are deducted from income.
Food inflation pressure is already visible in several core products tracked by the index.
The price of onions jumped 23% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year in April, while frozen chicken portions rose 12% year-on-year and beef liver climbed 24%.
Bread prices also continued increasing, with 25 loaves of white bread costing R424.73 on average across surveyed regions.
The association said while "food price inflation has been easing over the past several months; the April Household Food Basket shows a distinct shift upwards". This, it said, is out of kilter with historical growth rates, which suggests an early impact of increases in fuel prices on localfood price.
The latest diesel increases are now expected to place additional upward pressure on those costs through higher transport and logistics expenses.
The Road Freight Association warned that operators already weakened by earlier fuel increases may struggle to absorb another major diesel shock.
If smaller transport operators begin exiting the market, it could also reduce competition in parts of the logistics sector, potentially pushing freight costs even higher over time.
That creates broader economic risks beyond food inflation alone.
South Africa’s road freight sector underpins much of the country’s supply chain, moving goods between farms, ports, warehouses, factories and retailers. Any sustained disruption or contraction in the sector can create bottlenecks, delivery delays and increased costs throughout the economy.
"The consumer will start to feel more pressure on retail prices at the till - as only so much can be absorbed by retail or service / product providers before they, too, must pass costs on. Inflation targets will come under upward pressure as a result, eroding the purchasing power of ordinary South Africans who are already stretched," said the association's CEO, Gavin Kelly.
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