What's in store for Boks?

Gavin Rich|Published

The last part of a momentous year for Springbok rugby brought with it a few bumps that should serve as harbingers of the huge challenges that the world champions face as they go into the two-year build-up to IRB World Cup 2011 in New Zealand.

The five-week window known in the northern hemisphere as the "autumn tests" highlighted the biggest obstacles to the Boks retaining the World Cup.

For simplification's sake, we can divide these potential stumbling blocks into four categories - political, physical, internal and external.

The physical relates to conditioning and the quest to keep the current experienced core of experienced players in the game.

The internal relates to the inexperience of the coaching staff and the cracks that began to emerge on the recent tour, and the external relates to the probable improvement of the Boks' biggest rivals.

But let's start with political, for it could well be the biggest challenge the Boks face.

Last year, when Conrad Jantjes was fit and Adi Jacobs and Ricky Januarie were playing well, coach Peter de Villiers was thought to have done well on the transformation front.

However, two of the black players he introduced to Bok rugby were Zimbabwean - Beast Mtawarira and Brian Mujati. While Mujati has moved to England, Mtawarira is a regular in the front-row to the extent that he is now by far the most capped "black African" Bok in history.

The government though has made it clear they neither accept him as an indigenous black player or even as a South African.

When the weekend before the first Test of this past tour the Sports Ministry took SA Rugby to task for not complying with their requirements, they sent out an unambiguous message that they were taking off the kid gloves used for the Boks during De Villiers' reign as coach.

De Villiers has played a shrewd political game up to now. He infuriated his own bosses by publicly endorsing the ANC before the election in April. But many of his former supporters are doubting his willingness or ability to realise some of the promises he made before his appointment relating to black representation.

With Jacobs and Januarie having lost form, the coach has been selecting a team which, if you exclude Mtwarira, has no more locally produced black players than the one that played the World Cup final under Jake White.

Jacobs was chosen at inside centre for this past tour, a selection that was rightly criticised on rugby grounds by commentators. But if the politicians increase their pressure, what is De Villiers to do?

A glance into 2010 elicits an image that shows greater political pressure being applied on De Villiers, with the issue of what constitutes a black player being put firmly on the agenda.

And that pressure will intensify if the Boks are not winning.

This brings us to the other three factors as they are in a way inter-related.

For instance, while those seeking excuses for the poor Bok performances on the end of year tour were quick to point to fatigue, the 2011 World Cup hosts New Zealand were able to peak in their big match against France.

With Dan Carter now firmly back as the general in the No.10 jersey, the All Blacks played a far more pragmatic game than they did in the Tri-Nations and the forwards that had fallen short against the Boks took a step-up.

The All Blacks reclaimed the world No.1 ranking, and while the Boks have the advantage at the moment after three consecutive victories, the return of Ali Williams and Carl Hayman to their front-five is going to make a massive difference.

A move in the physical sphere that the All Black management made which the Boks would do well to take note of was the decision to keep the talented lock Isaac Ross at home rather than send him on tour.

Ross is wonderfully talented but lacked the necessary physicality in his first year of international rugby.

He is now working on a scientific conditioning programme that will bulk him up. Don't be surprised if he emerges as one of the world's top locks by this time next year.

Are the Springbok conditioning methods scientific enough?

Certainly under Jake White they were, and he placed a strict emphasis on ensuring that the players were in perfect physical condition.

But under the new regime standards appear to have slipped and, while fatigue was a factor on this past tour, it is also becoming evident the Boks are not as fit as they should be.

Some players look out of condition and provincial coaches have complained that players return from national duty unfit.

In most games this year the Boks fell away in the last quarter and in some of them they were out on their feet at the end.

Players do need to be managed, but the internal challenge is the one that relates to the effectiveness of the current coaching team.

By international standards, the triumvirate of De Villiers, Dick Muir and Gary Gold is short of experience and the Tri-Nations success in 2009 under a player-driven system does not obscure the fact that they still have a lot to prove.

Will they make the right calls on when players should be managed and rested?

It is crucial for the Boks to retain some sort of psychological solidity against the Kiwis and Aussies, so the Tri-Nations would not be the right time to rest players.

White rested his top players ahead of the 2007 World Cup in November 2006, with a second string team travelling to England and Ireland.

Whatever the final decision, it is going to take some thought, for the Bok coach would be naive to think he can allow the current losing sequence to become a downward spiral without consequence to his own position.

And related to this is the big selection dilemma around John Smit now that the captain's switch back to hooker has highlighted the value of a specialist tighthead.

Smit's experience has been the glue around which the current Bok management have survived but a decision is going to have to be made on whether Smit's value as a leader outweighs the potential value of Bismarck du Plessis as a hooker.