Transparency vital for new nuclear plans

While new plans for nuclear power are expected to only bear fruit around 2032/33, Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said the country has to invest in long-term projects to secure energy sovereignty and avoid a repeat of the current load-shedding crisis.

This comes as the minister on Tuesday announced the government’s move to procure 2 500 megawatts of nuclear energy with requests for proposals (RFP) expected to be released by March next year.

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2023 has also been approved by the Cabinet, which includes short-term (up to 2030) and long-term (2030–2050) plans to address the country’s energy crisis.

At a briefing on Tuesday, Ramokgopa said: “The contribution of nuclear power constitutes about 5%. Now we are upping it, (in the) total energy mix, it’s the cheapest, safest and most reliable.

A significant amount of technological advancement has been made and it is important we are able to benefit from it. Part of the reason we are where we are today, when we were advised in 1997 about the need to build new generation capacity, the country would run out, we were complacent, because we had excess generation and it caught up with us.

We have two tasks. One primary task is ending load shedding, sufficient generation, then we have to ensure going into the future we don’t run into the same problem.”

Energy expert Lungile Mashele said the build-up had been “long, litigious and arduous”.

“Made that way by government ineptitude and anti-nuclear lobby groups. Nuclear is the only pathway to an energy mix that has no CO2 emissions and provides base load capacity.

“If South Africa has any hopes to wean itself off coal, nuclear is the only option. The build time is long and is characterised by time and cost overruns. The costs are well within limits and nuclear has the highest capacity factor as a technology and also the lowest levelised cost of energy, especially considering its 70-year life span.

“It’s important to note that today a determination was made; however, the procurement has not started.

Procurement was supposed to start in March 2022 already and looks to only start in March 2024 when the RPF is scheduled to be released.

Key to this procurement will be transparency, contracting regime (turnkey) and the cost.”

Mashele added that people should not draw false equivalencies with the cost of nuclear and renewables in upcoming weeks.

“Renewables are currently R0.60 per kWh whereas nuclear is estimated to be R1.35 per kWh. However, consider that if renewables were available 24 hours they would need batteries, this would take the cost of renewables to R2 per kWh. Renewables also don’t provide dispatched ramping, synchronous power, peak capacity, frequency and voltage stability.”

Civil nuclear engineer Hügo Krüger said the lead time for a nuclear plant is between seven to 10 years.

“The financing conditions are very favourable for developing countries, because they are financed through low interest rates, hence the vendor (and not buyer) absorbs the overruns.”

Developing countries are all building new nuclear, South Africa’s decision is entirely rational. The main reason why the private sector doesn’t like nuclear is because the deals are set up to lock out all middlemen.”

The Koeberg Alert Alliance, however, said new nuclear power would take so long to build, and so much can go wrong.”

“One only has to consider Eskom’s attempts to refurbish Koeberg, which they said would take five months per unit, and now is set to take at least 18 months per unit. To start committing large amounts of money now as well as interest payments on something that might be ready in 10 or 12 years time, when the whole energy landscape is likely to be completely different, is not rational. Experience with mega projects such as Medupi has shown that these projects always go way over schedule and way over budget, so 12 years is also an extremely optimistic estimate.”

“The timing of the announcement is puzzling. The latest revision of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is about to be released for public comment. That might contain no new nuclear power, or if it does it might be removed after input during the public consultation process. The reality is that new renewable capacity and storage solutions are progressing rapidly now that Nersa approval is no longer required. 2 500MW would be insignificant by the time such a project was ever completed.”

Cape Times