Zuma tipped to win battle in Mangaung

Johannesburg - Leading political commentators believe President Jacob Zuma is likely to be re-elected at the ANC’s elective conference in Mangaung, but factionalism, coupled with money, will remain a thorn in the side of the ruling party.

The ANC was a “complicated organisation” with different factions fighting for power in the party, and at the moment none could claim victory.

Speaking at a Centre for Conflict Resolution public meeting on “ANC factionalism on the road to Mangaung” last night, Professor Steven Friedman said he believed the elective conference in December would provide “good theatre”, but was dismissive of it being a defining moment for the country.

“Instead of fixating on Mangaung, we need to ask the hard questions, like the role that business and trade unions play in our society, rather than simply blaming everything on the governing party,” said Friedman.

Nominations for the party’s leadership positions open next week, after a warning by the ANC top brass last year that talk about succession would not be entertained until then.

Political analyst Karima Brown believed those campaigning in the name of deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe had ambitions of their own, and it had more to do with certain key figures who were worried about their political futures, and less to do with Motlanthe’s own decisions about his political future.

Friedman said an important ingredient in the leadership battle, if there was going to be one, would be to have Motlanthe agree to run in the first place, and at the moment, it was not clear he would do so.

”It does appear that those campaigning for Jacob Zuma seem to have the numerical advantage, but I would say at this stage, it was very fluid,” said Brown.

Friedman said Motlanthe was brilliant at diagnosing problems in the party, but had not been able to muster any solutions. “I don’t think he would be able to deal with the factionalism and we will see more of the same actually.”

Friedman said the “Anything But Zuma”, also known as the ABZ campaign that is leading the call for Zuma to be replaced by Motlanthe, was a “cry for help”.

Friedman and Brown were also scathing of expelled ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema’s role in the leadership race.

On Wednesday, Malema called Zuma “illiterate” and said he should be replaced in December.

The analysts believed Malema was a symptom of what was “wrong in the ruling party” and was a “paid mouthpiece” of the nationalist factions in the ANC.

The Star