The First Five Years | How South Africa is flying half-blind on its youngest children

South Africa prides itself on having world-class data on schools, matric results, and university enrolments. Yet for children under five, the country’s youngest learners, the state is effectively flying blind.

An estimated six million children, roughly 10% of the population, are growing up in a “data desert,” invisible to government systems responsible for education, health, and social protection.

Experts warn that this lack of information threatens both children’s development and South Africa’s long-term economic potential as the first five years of a child’s life lay the foundation for all future learning, health, and productivity. Yet this critical stage remains one of the most neglected areas in South Africa’s education system.

“Quality early childhood education provides persistent, life-long benefits to the child and society long after they have left preschool,” said economist James Heckman.

“The highest rate of return in early childhood development comes from investing as early as possible, from birth through age five, in disadvantaged families.”

It comes amid the Department of Basic Education (DBE) on Monday raising the alarm over poor reading fluency among South African pupils. According to the newly released Funda Uphumelele National Survey, only 31% of Grade 1 learners could recognise at least 40 letter sounds per minute, the national benchmark for reading readiness.

The survey found that English-assessed pupils were most likely to meet the benchmark, followed by those tested in Afrikaans and isiXhosa. However, the results show that the majority of children are still far behind in developing basic reading skills needed for comprehension by Grade 4.

Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube said the results confirm that many children are not yet reaching the necessary reading fluency benchmarks. “Too many children are not on track to read with understanding by Grade 4,” she said during the report’s release in Pretoria.

The findings echo results from the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) 2021, which revealed that 81% of Grade 4 learners in South Africa could not read for meaning. The new survey underscores that reading difficulties begin much earlier, with fewer than one in three Grade 1 to 3 pupils meeting the home language reading standard.

The data desert: Millions of children out of sight

While South Africa has reliable statistics on older learners, administrative data on children under five is severely limited.

The 2024 General Household Survey (GHS) shows that only 35% of children aged 0–4 attend formal early learning programmes (ELPs), including creches, preschools, or home-based playgroups.

More than half, 57.6%, remain at home with parents, relatives, or guardians, largely unmonitored by government systems.

“The state cannot effectively plan or budget because it does not know who or where the children are, who is receiving services, or how they are developing developmentally,” says Niël Roux, Director of Service Delivery Statistics at Statistics South Africa.

“Survey-based approaches, while useful for trends, are not optimal nor sustainable for robust program monitoring and planning.”

This invisibility has real consequences. Children who are not enrolled in early learning programmes often start school behind their peers, lacking foundational skills in literacy, numeracy, and socio-emotional development.

Parent Voices: The human cost of invisible children

For many families, administrative gaps translate into lost opportunities and financial hardship.

Nokuthula Mkhize said her child was never registered at birth.

“We didn’t get a birth certificate in time, so I couldn’t apply for the Child Support Grant. It took months of running between Home Affairs and SASSA, and even then, I only received partial support,” she said.

Sipho Dlamini recounted how missing documentation kept his daughter out of a local ECD programme.

“I wanted her to go to a creche, but because her birth certificate wasn’t updated, the centre couldn’t register her. I had to wait until everything was processed, she lost almost a year of learning.”

These stories highlight the practical challenges that families face in accessing basic government services, from financial support to early learning, when the state has no central, dynamic records to track children.

Thrive by Five: 'What the data tells us'

The Thrive by Five Index, South Africa’s largest survey of preschool outcomes, confirms that even children enrolled in ELPs are struggling. Of the 5,001 children assessed in 2024 across 1,388 programmes:

Only 42% of enrolled children were developmentally on track. 28% were falling behind, while 30% were far behind. For non-enrolled children, just 18% were on track, with 55% far behind. Stunting affected 7% of enrolled children and 18% of non-enrolled children, leaving them on average five months behind peers.

Girls consistently outperformed boys, and children in low-fee centres were half as likely to be on track as those in higher-fee centres.

“The first five years of a child’s life is a time of extraordinary growth. Supportive early settings, be it at home, in learning programmes, or in communities, set children on a trajectory to wellbeing and opportunity,” notes the Thrive by Five Index report.

Funding and infrastructure gaps

The government has pledged R10 billion in new funding to restore the ECD subsidy’s purchasing power, increasing it from R17 to R24 per child per day and extending coverage to 700,000 additional children. By 2027/28, the number of subsidised children is expected to rise from 800,000 to 1.5 million.

R210 million has been allocated to ECD infrastructure through the Bana Pele Mass Registration Drive, but the reality remains challenging.

More than 19,000 unregistered ECD programmes in low-income communities require basic infrastructure improvements to meet health and safety standards and qualify for subsidies.

Nutrition is another critical concern. Funding for the DBE’s early nutrition pilot increased by 70%, from R197 million in 2024/25 to R336 million in 2025/26.

With one in four children under five stunted due to malnutrition, experts warn that failing to address early nutrition has lifelong health and economic consequences. World Bank data shows that ending stunting in South Africa could boost GDP by at least R80 billion.

Fragmented systems: The technical hurdle

Part of the challenge lies in systemic fragmentation. The migration of ECD oversight from the Department of Social Development to the Department of Basic Education in 2022 shifted responsibilities but not the underlying data systems.

The DBE inherited thousands of paper-based registration files from DSD, creating a backlog in digitisation and registration.

Municipal data is another bottleneck. Accurate mapping of ECD centres requires geospatial data to confirm locations, infrastructure, and zoning compliance.

However, municipalities often use incompatible formats, making integration into DBE systems difficult. This prevents effective planning, quality monitoring, and timely subsidy allocation.

Furthermore, critical services are scattered across siloed departments:

• Health: growth monitoring, immunizations
• Home Affairs: birth registration
• SASSA: Child Support Grants
• DBE: early learning registration and subsidies

Without linking these datasets, the state cannot track a child’s overall development or intervene proactively when risks arise.

Civil Society steps in: Shadow dashboards

NGOs have developed their own systems. Ilifa Labantwana, through its KiDS project, collated a database of over 18,600 ELPs, tracking registration, child numbers, and subsidy access. It also supports the development of the Early Childhood Administration and Reporting System (eCares), intended to improve routine administrative data collection and quality assurance.

“Civil society has been forced to act as the primary data custodians for ECD. Relying on NGOs for core administrative functions is unsustainable for a foundational public service,” said an Ilifa Labantwana.

Other organizations, such as Data Innovations Africa, are pioneering innovative approaches to data collection, analysis, and communication, fostering a culture of data-driven decision-making in the sector.

Experts emphasise that political will and inter-departmental coordination are essential. Key reforms include:

• Unified Child Identifier: A single identifier linking all child-related data across government departments.
• Standardized Geospatial Data: Mandatory GIS integration for planning, infrastructure, and compliance checks.
• Routine Monitoring: Transitioning from static Census data to a dynamic, continually updated administrative register.
• Proactive Risk Profiling: Early warning systems to flag high-risk children or households for targeted intervention.

South Africa’s youngest citizens face a precarious start to life. Millions are unregistered, malnourished, or excluded from early learning programmes.

“Those seeking to reduce deficits and strengthen the economy should make significant investments in early childhood education,” Heckman reminds policymakers.

With the right political will, integrated systems, and sustained funding, South Africa could transform this data desert into a comprehensive, child-focused landscape.

But without urgent action, the country risks entrenching inequality, compromising its future workforce, and missing the opportunity to give its youngest citizens the start they deserve.

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