An 88% pass rate is real progress - But who falls out before matric?

The announcement of South Africa’s most recent matric results, delivering a historic 88% pass rate, marks a moment worth pausing on. It is a milestone that speaks to system resilience, improved coordination and the sustained effort of teachers, learners, families and policymakers.

For social investors, however, this moment is not only about celebration. It is also an opportunity to interrogate what sits beneath the headline figure, to understand where progress is real, where inequality persists, and where targeted investment can unlock the greatest long-term impact.

A system shaped by history, moving forward unevenly

South Africa’s education system continues to operate within the legacy of an intentionally unequal past. Against that context, the progress achieved since democracy is substantial and often under-acknowledged. Outcomes for black African and coloured learners today far exceed those of 30 years ago, reflecting decades of reform, investment and determination. However, these gains should not be mistaken for sufficiency. The system continues to fall short of delivering high-quality education equitably along the full cradle-to-career continuum.

At the early primary level, the gains are particularly notable. Approximately 94% of 10- and 11-year-olds now pass Grade 3, up from around 78% two decades ago. Yet social investors are acutely aware that pass rates alone do not equate to meaningful learning. Only about three-quarters of learners can read for meaning by this stage - a distinction that has profound implications for every subject that follows.

This quality gap is most visible in the stark contrast between no-fee Quintile 1–3 schools, often operating with minimal infrastructure, and well-resourced schools offering facilities such as libraries, laboratories, astro turfs and Olympic-size pools. These disparities mirror broader socio-economic divides that education alone cannot resolve, but which it has the power to either entrench or disrupt.

The narrowing pipeline

From a systems perspective, social investors pay close attention to educational “pressure points” - moments where learners are most likely to fall behind or exit the system entirely. Grade 3 and Grade 9 consistently emerge as two of the most critical.

By Grade 9, pass rates decline to approximately 75–76% among 16-year-olds, signalling the start of significant learner attrition. The numbers that follow are sobering. Of roughly 1.2 million children born each year and entering Grade 1, only about 650 000 ultimately reach and pass matric. Of these, roughly 250 000 pass mathematics.

The post-school pipeline narrows further still. Approximately 340 000 learners enter university annually, and only about 200 000 graduate. The result is that just 15–16% of adults in South Africa hold a post-school qualification — well below the National Development Plan’s target of 25%.

Why early investment delivers the greatest return

As Tshikululu Social Investments, we are seeing evidence point to early childhood development (ECD) as the highest-return investment opportunity in the education system. Interventions from conception through the first 1 000 days - including quality crèche provision and caregiver support - have lifelong effects on cognitive development, curiosity and learning capacity.

The foundation phase (Grades 1–3) is equally decisive. Improving reading for meaning during these years can fundamentally reshape a learner’s entire educational trajectory. The aspirational shift many investors are now working toward is moving from having one in four learners reading adequately by Grade 4 to three in four - a change that would reverberate through the entire system.

Children who develop a love of reading early are far more likely to engage meaningfully with mathematics, science and biology later - skills that the South African economy urgently needs.

Matric momentum - and why quality matters

At the senior end of the system, there is genuine cause for cautious optimism. The matric “engine is humming.” Despite periodic disruptions, including isolated paper leaks, the system has demonstrated growing resilience and improving coordination. The 88% pass rate reflects this momentum and sets a strong benchmark for future cohorts.

For social investors, however, the focus extends beyond headline pass rates to the quality of outcomes. Particular attention is paid to pure mathematics passes and bachelor-level passes, which open pathways into STEM fields at universities and TVET colleges. Encouragingly, steady improvements over the past three years suggest that progress in these areas is gaining traction.

Strategic leverage points for social investors

The education landscape offers no shortage of potential entry points: foundation-phase literacy, wraparound university bursaries, and post-school training aligned with B-BBEE priorities all remain vital. Increasingly, however, we are seeing that Grade 9 is emerging as a strategic intervention point with outsized impact.

Strengthening outcomes at this level can keep more learners in the system, redirect them into viable vocational pathways, and reduce the sharp drop-off that currently occurs before matric. There is much work to be done, however, to improve the quality of these pathways so that they offer a compelling choice for Grade 9 graduates. This includes expanding access to TVET colleges, and skilled trades such as plumbing, electrical work and mechanical engineering; but also, community colleges, offering readily marketable skills for the modern economy.

Unlike countries such as Germany, South Africa remains heavily skewed toward university qualifications, often at the expense of vocational training. By raising the floor while still pursuing excellence, social investors have an opportunity to help rebalance the system - narrowing inequality, strengthening the skills pipeline, and accelerating inclusive economic development.

Graeme Wilkinson, Senior Social Investment Specialist at Tshikululu Social Investments