Ashley Green-Thompson runs an organisation that supports social justice action.
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I’m learning to embrace uncertainty in my efforts to become wise. It isn’t easy.
There is comfort in certainty, safety in knowing what is going on and what the answers are to whatever dilemma we may be facing. It’s a natural inclination to seek the reassuring embrace of certainty – haven’t we all been comforted by someone telling us that it is all going to be okay?
In tackling complex problems, we are too often deferential to those who appear as experts. It is the voice of academics, experts, and the economic and political elite that dominate discourse about societal challenges, strident and certain in proposing solutions.
Uncertainty causes discomfort, and we don’t like feeling uncomfortable, so we rush to find solutions. I admire the comedic genius of John Cleese, one of the Monty Python troupe, and I recently came across his views on discomfort and creativity. He argues that really good creative professionals learn to tolerate the discomfort of unresolved problems for longer, avoiding the natural inclination to get to solutions quicker so that they can be comfortable. Sitting with discomfort and tension allows better solutions to eventually emerge.
We don’t try to force answers. There are tools that are rooted in this philosophy that can help us navigate the uncertainty. One that I’m increasingly drawn to is scenario planning. AI on the web describes scenario planning as a strategic tool to navigate volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments by developing multiple, plausible future scenarios rather than relying on a single forecast. It helps the user to anticipate future situations and make informed decisions now. It imagines different possibilities - both good and bad - and prepares you for what might come next.
Indlulamithi in the Nguni languages is the name for a giraffe. It means to look above the trees, and is also a really cool name for a project started in 2017 to think about futures. Indlulamithi scenarios are offered as planning tools that can help us understand the underlying forces that impact our society and shape the future direction in which we are travelling. They allow us to think proactively about what we are doing and what we should be doing to influence that trajectory. Their scenarios "remind South Africans that the future is a choice, not an inevitable fate."
These scenarios are arrived at through evidence-based research and insights of experts and people who see and analyse the world from different viewpoints. Their approach considers two worlds – facts and perceptions – and informs scenarios of what South Africa could be in 2035.
Hadeda Home, the Recrimination Nation, describes a scenario in which we retreat into our enclaves and let the economic woes and their attendant evils of unemployment and social fracture continue. "Africa’s loudest birds, these noisy foragers are opportunistic expansionists, always on the move. Seeming anxious and skittish, their brash calls warn of danger, real and perceived. They do all they can to survive. Resilient, they build strong nests, returning to the same trees each year to remake their Hadeda homes."
Vulture Culture – the Desperation Nation, is a scenario defined by populism and authoritarian rule in which the state is unable to respond to the challenges of economic stagnation and crisis. "Vultures love a feast but will settle for scraps. Skilled and relentless, adapting to every condition, their keen eyesight allows them to swoop in wherever opportunities await. They fight off other birds and lash out at smaller scavengers for what they consider theirs. There is little left when they’re done."
Weaver Work – the Cooperation Nation, sees political coalitions in power that listen to people, and that foster increased collaboration in economic development.
"Kalahari sociable weavers build largest tree nests in the world. Cooperatively-built nests can house 100 bird families. Bounce-back birds, their cooperative nature allows them to thrive and recover from disruptions and disasters."
These are very brief "tasters" of each scenario. The detailed political, social and economic description is available online, and any one of them is a possible reality. Which will come to be is dependent on the choices we make now - in politics, the economy, and in our social settings. Perhaps these Indlulamithi Scenarios can help us all become more effective in convincing those within our spheres of influence to make better choices.
Ashley Green-Thompson runs an organisation that supports social justice action.