As the Class of 2025 awaits the eagerly anticipated release of their final matric exam results, set to be announced tomorrow, education experts are projecting little change in the overall national pass rate.
With over 900,000 candidates having sat for their National Senior Certificate (NSC) exams last year, including more than 195,000 from KwaZulu-Natal alone, insights from various educational professionals suggest that the pass rate is likely to hold steady at around 87%, consistent with the performances in 2023 and 2024.
Prof Mbulungeni Madiba, dean of education at Stellenbosch University, said trends from recent years suggest that the overall national matric pass rate in 2025 is likely to remain stable at around 87%, in line with the relatively consistent performance recorded in 2023 and 2024.
"A significant decline is unlikely due to ongoing systemic support from the Department of Basic Education, although major improvements are also improbable given persistent structural challenges," said Madiba.
Madiba added that the mathematics pass rates were expected to remain similar to those of 2024, while a modest improvement in physical sciences is possible, despite continued teacher shortages that exacerbate disparities between provinces and districts.
"Although some provincial interventions were implemented, limited national-level initiatives may constrain their overall impact. Notably, the class of 2025 is the third cohort to complete Grades 10 to 12 entirely post-COVID-19, allowing schools more time to implement learning recovery programmes, which may have a positive, though gradual, effect on learner performance," said Madiba.
Ramashego Shila Mphahlele, associate professor in the Institute for Open Distance Learning at UNISA said she expected a continued upward trend, but less dramatic than the jump from 2023 to 2024, because there was continued support for extra classes and holiday lessons.
"Some schools improved their support through targeted interventions, such as the use of technology. I hope to see improvement in mathematics because it has consistently had lower pass rates compared to other subjects over the years," said Mphahlele.
Professor Vimolan Mudaly from the University of KwaZulu-Natal regards the overall pass rate with skepticism, stating, "With the pass mark set at 30% in some ways, the overall percentage pass is a poor reflection of the state of education in South Africa. We should be asking for the statistics that show the pass rate with the pass mark of 40%. Therefore, when the overall pass percentage exceeds that of the previous year, be aware that this may be due to political reasons or as a result of easier grading standards.
"The expectation is that the pass rate would be higher because we did not experience any disturbances for the year. It is unrealistic if the increase is reflected as more than 1.5%," said Mudaly.
Mudaly said despite the career matriculants choose to follow now, this could be changed later, adding that they must ensure that they get into university and that they must study.
Prof Ramodungoane Tabane, UNISA school director for educational studies, said Covid 19 had had tremendously affected the education system.
"Five to six years after the fact, life seems to be coming along with both teachers and learners having embraced various education tools such as online and digital learning etc. to enhance teaching and learning. Thus, usage of cellphones to support curriculum with teachers as mediators gave learners an extra boost and confidence of researching their topics. So, I do expect a marginal increase in the 2025 results," said Tabane.
Tabane added that it was important for learners to understand that tertiary institution does not only mean university education.
"The department of higher education has spent much support on developing TVET colleges and it is important for this skills and practical based training to be explored as they lead to professional occupations. There are also community colleges that are always ready to accept students, especially those that might have not achieved bachelors or diploma passes," said Tabane.
Prof Phumlani Myende of the University of KwaZulu-Natal's school of education believes there could be a slight decrease from the 87% obtained in the 2024 matric results.
"We have not come out of the problems experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic. The current cohort were affected by the pandemic as it affected learners learning behaviour. At the time focus was on the higher grades and a lot of the curriculum in the lower grades was not covered," said Myende.
Universities South Africa (USAf) yesterday announced that public universities will release application outcomes to prospective first-time-entering students only after the official release of the National Senior Certificate (NSC) results to the learners or schools next week.
"According to USAf’s CEO, Dr Phethiwe Matutu, the delay in providing USAf, and by extension, universities, with the 2025 NSC results follows a decision by the Department of Basic Education (DBE) to minimise the risk of a leak similar to that which occurred with the 2024 results."Ordinarily, universities would have received the NSC results 72 hours (three days) before their public release. This timeframe enabled institutions to finalise admission decisions and issue acceptance letters on the same day learners received their results.
“This facilitated a smooth admissions process and reduced anxiety among prospective university students. This shortened time frame will place significant operational and administrative pressure on universities, particularly in relation to timely and efficient processing, and issuance of offers to prospective students. Prospective first-time entrants must therefore await their application outcomes directly from universities,” said Dr Matutu.
The University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) is preparing to admit more than 9 000 first-time students for the 2026 academic year. They had received more than 326 546 applications.
Among the most sought-after programmes at UKZN were the Bachelor of Nursing, which received 27 763 applications; the Bachelor of Education, with 25 826 applicants; and the Bachelor of Laws, which attracted 25 231 applications.
Tiyani Mboweni, DUT's communications manager said they received 155 630 applications for 9 416 spaces available for first time entering students.
Mbali Mkhize, Mangosuthu University of Technology's senior director of marketing and communications, said the university has received more than 80,000 applications for the 3,220 places available for first-year students.
Of these 86,498 applications, 15,415 were for the Diploma in Information Technology.