OPINION: With so many political parties emerging in each election, and with the Umkhonto WeSizwe Party (MKP) being unadvisedly undermined by the ANC leadership, the ANC’s future hangs in the balance, writes Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu.

With the Umkhonto WeSizwe Party (MKP) being inadvisedly undermined by the ANC leadership, the ANC’s future hangs in the balance, writes Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu.

The ANC is the oldest liberation movement in Africa. It played a critical role in the liberation of South Africa. Moreover, the ANC inspired other countries to establish their liberation movements. It was in this context that Northern Rhodesia (now Zambia) established its own ANC in 1958.

After decades of struggle, the ANC and all other liberation movements were unbanned on February 2, 1990. Consequently, the first democratic election was held on April 27, 1994. Unsurprisingly, the ANC emerged victorious – obtaining 62.65% of the votes.

Except for 2004 when the ANC obtained a two-thirds majority with 69.69%, the party has been on a downward spiral. However, the ANC had never obtained anything below 60% since 1994.

Cyril Ramaphosa took over as the leader of the ANC. He promised “the new dawn” and complained about what he called “nine wasted years” under his predecessor, Jacob Zuma.

Intriguingly, instead of the ANC improving its performance, the worst has happened. Under Ramaphosa’s leadership, the ANC went below 60% for the first time in the 2019 general election when it obtained 57.50%. It continued to do badly in the 2021 Local Government Election.

But history was made in the May 29, 2024, general election when the ANC for the first time obtained less than 50%, managing a mere 40.18%. Even this figure was disputed by some who claimed that the ANC obtained far less than this figure. But since this was the official result released by the Independent Electoral Commission, it is the figure that was recorded.

Given this synopsis, the question arises, what is the future of the ANC? Put differently, will the ANC overcome its evident challenges and reclaim its position as the leader of society?

Optimists from within and outside the ANC will answer these questions in the affirmative. They will cite the party’s renewal project as the basis for their optimism. Those who have always hailed Ramaphosa as the “Messiah” will pin their trust on him to resurrect the ANC.

I hold a different view. I am pessimistic about the future of the ANC. I am of the view that the party has run its course and has reached its ceiling. My submission is predicated on a few reasons which I will outline below.

Firstly, the calibre of the ANC’s leadership and membership does not inspire hope. This view is confirmed by Thabo Mbeki’s call for the audit of the membership of the party.

Both on the side of the leadership and the membership, there is an evident lack of knowledge about the ANC’s founding principles, policies, and the party’s constitution. Individuals are worshipped and elevated to the status of “gods” either because they have money or because they wield power which will place certain individuals in powerful positions they do not deserve.

Secondly, factionalism has ruined the reputation of the ANC. People with no requisite skills and knowledge ascend to power. Once they are at the top, they prove clueless about what to do with that power. Meritocracy has taken the back seat. This has resulted in the ANC failing to deliver on its mandate and its promises.

Thirdly, linked to the above is how the ANC has been dealing with corruption. Instead of facing this scourge with honesty, tenacity, determination, and fairness, the party has opted to play the man, not the ball.

People who are disliked in certain quarters for various reasons are accused of corruption without any concrete evidence being put on the table. In the same vein, people whose corrupt activities are in the public domain are shielded using all state institutions. While this tendency saves the individuals concerned and saves them from the gallows, it has destroyed the ANC and has painted the country in a bad light internationally.

Fourthly, the ANC has created a gulf between itself and the membership. Many constituency offices are not doing their job as per the ANC tradition. This results in those deployed in Provincial Legislatures and in the National Assembly doing what they think is right, not what people on the ground need and want.

Fifthly, some leaders of the ANC dismiss any form of constructive criticism. Instead of listening to any advice, they deride those offering such advice and become defensive. In a worst-case scenario, they label their critics as “enemies” to the extent of blaming them for the ANC’s failures.

Given these factors, the ANC is in trouble! It is because of these and other factors that the party has been on a downward trajectory. The wounds the ANC is licking are self-inflicted.

The results of the May 2024 general election set the ANC in a panic mode. Toying with the idea of working with the DA when the Alliance partners were not happy was a bad move. Indeed, the multiparty coalition (wrongly referred to as the Government of National Unity or GNU) was necessitated by the election outcome. However, the ANC could have handled this matter differently if it was willing to listen to divergent views.

Surely, the writing was already on the wall that the ANC was not going to obtain 50% in the May 2024 general election. Some of us tried to warn the ANC but we were dismissed. Interestingly, when we were vindicated by the election outcome some began to accuse us of having orchestrated the ANC’s poor performance. No tangible facts were placed on the table. The accusations were only based on misguided emotions.

The ANC has a lot to learn from Botswana and Ghana. Governing political parties in these countries have been voted out of power. The same happened to KANU in Kenya in 2002 and to PDP in Nigeria in 2015.

With so many political parties emerging in each election, and with the Umkhonto WeSizwe Party (MKP) being unadvisedly undermined by the ANC leadership, the ANC’s future hangs in the balance.

* Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu is the Director of the Centre for the Advancement of Non-Racialism and Democracy at the Nelson Mandela University.

** The views in this article do not necessarily represent the views of IOL or Independent Media.