What happens when Trump does not get the Nobel Peace Prize?

WHETHER or not Donald J Trump (DJT) knows who William Congreve is remains uncertain. Whether or not he is familiar with the famous author’s 1697 play titled The Mourning Bride is even more contentious.

Allowing that he may have casually encountered the aphorism that “hell hath no fury like a woman scorned”, it may not have occurred to him that the proverbial rhyme would someday describe the impetuosity of an American president, or himself in this case.

From the first day in office, The Donald has been trumpeting his virtuosity in negotiating wars to an end. Hitherto, he counts seven and so, received a lot of support from members of his administration, the White House spokesperson and an eclectic lineup of his acolytes.

The list of the wars he claims to have resolved continues to be contested by objective realities in some of the affected countries. Putting aside the oxymoron of starting the war with Iran and then claiming to have resolved it, there are other conflicts which stretch the incredulity of the claim to levels of absurdity.

The DRC and Rwanda peace memorandum signed in Washington DC did not include the M-23 rebels, the actual DRC rebels fighting in the eastern enclave of the richest country by minerals in the African continent. And so do the issues in contestation between Egypt and Ethiopia continue to fester with intensity.

The sudden flare-up between India and Pakistan, and its resolution, became a sore point in DJT’s endeavour for the top prize. The entire narrative was debased. First, he claimed he was responsible for the cessation of hostilities. India demurred. He then asked Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. India refused, or so Palki Sharma is proud to reveal.

In all fairness, Trump may have actively halted the bloody skirmishes between Thailand and Cambodia. And while at it, he conscientiously pursued the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal that gave the US a 99-year lease to the corridor leading into Iran.

What DJT may do if he is not awarded the prestigious laurel remains largely enigmatic. To his credit, though, the US head of state has established an unmistakable yet predictable trait of unpredictability, leaving us with the anxiety of wild conjecture.

Beyond just the obsession, he has actively lobbied different heads of state to nominate him for the purpose. And one by one, they obliged him. Pakistan, Cambodia and the Gabonese military coup leader turned civilian president. There could be others no doubt who might have expressed the same sentiment either in private or in public.

But the strategy is flawed. The one President who can nominate Trump and get him the Nobel Peace Prize with a unanimous vote is President Mahmoud Abbas of the State of Palestine. It just so happens that Trump may not have heard of him, or if Abbas has a mobile phone, it is out of service as he is eking out a miserable day-to-day, buried under the rubble of Gaza.

But Trump will try, as determined as he is, that posterity and the charming face of fate must hoist his carved out face on the heights of Mount Rushmore or as a compromise, award him the Nobel Peace Prize.

There are signs gleaned from the commentary of some of the members of the Nobel Prize Committee. Its chairman and a few of his fellow committee members are fervent advocates of freedom of speech. At least three of the five esteemed voting Oslo citizens preponderate against Trump’s nomination.

In this Trump administration, its foreign policy tactics are quintessentially two. The one is that the primary instrument of Washington’s statecraft is deception. The other is that when you negotiate with the US on anything to do with Israel, for whatever reason, you shall be decapitated!

Arguably, the consequences of not nominating Trump for the award may lead to nothing. But as we have come to observe a vengeful White House resident, wearing his irate heart on Truth Social, the consequences may also be huge. As Congreve mused, “heaven has no rage, like love to hatred turn’s, nor hell a fury, like a woman scorned”. Supplanting “woman” for DJT, hell hath no fury like Donald Trump denied. What then can we expect from a raging tempest, a lord of Pax Americana with his ego wounded? It’s difficult to say for sure.

Some of the possibilities are predictable. First, woe betides Gaza. The Donald shall be unchained and may authorise the total extermination of everyone else left in the embattled strip and seize the remaining slivers of Palestinian land not occupied by the settler Israeli army.

On the southern tip, Trump will escalate the deployment of storm troopers in either Puerto Rico, Trinidad & Tobago or even Guyana. The plan is simple. It is to trigger an accident in the Venezuelan continental shelf waters that would justify a full-blown bombardment of Caracas and lay it to ruins just for Nicolas Maduro to abdicate office. Whether that would be a winning strategy or not, time will tell.

With Netanyahu always lurking in the corridors of the Pentagon, Trump will authorise the second bombardment of Iran, this time using depleted uranium. The main objective is the final decapitation of the Ayatollah. It boggles the mind what countries do not learn from their follies in war or from history.

It is not improbable that Trump would bend the will of New Delhi if for no other reason than to expedite the perversion called the China containment strategy. It is a moot point whether or not India wields enough critical leverage in direct trade negotiations with the United States.

And whether or not such leverage will be so overwhelming that it can bend the resolve of the US empire will depend on several factors, both known and unknown. For now, India seeks greater recognition from Washington, especially for doing their bidding inside the Quad in containing China.

All that the US deep state wants to achieve is a skirmish in the South Pacific between China and the Philippines. Washington would quickly weigh in on the side of Manila and would quickly escalate the conflict. Manila would fulfil the role that Taiwan is unable to fulfil. And that is to become the Ukraine of South East Asia. Japan would cover the Eastern flank of the dragon, and India would wing it from the west.

There is also a matter of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It is as elusive as it is difficult to resolve in haste. In fact, while Moscow has determined the framework to end the conflict, Trump and his European allies seek to end it in terms which would weaken Moscow’s influence in its near abroad.

Out of their collective frustration, Trump may authorise the use of long-range missiles that could hit the pre-2014 territory of the Russian Federation. The guise is simple. The US sells weapons to NATO, and NATO offers them to Ukraine. This is baffling, especially considering that by a trick of hand, the US divorces itself from NATO for purposes of this sale.

In NATO’s calculation, this escalation, combined with bone-crushing sanctions and 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, would bring Russia to the capitulation table.

Pity the members of the Nobel Peace Prize committee. In this environment of anarchy and revenge, they may be treated much the same way as members of the ICC who have issued a warrant of arrest against Benjamin Netanyahu.

They and their families may be prevented from visiting the US and, in the depravity of the hour, may be accused of that one sweeping ignominy that has characterised the puerile justification of all US foreign policy actions.

They will be branded as alien enemies acting against the national security interests of the US.

* Ambassador Bheki Gila is a Barrister-at-Law.

** The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Sunday Independent, Independent Media, or IOL.

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