Desperate flight

Even before the crush of new arrivals, the Mbera refugee camp in Mauritania’s southeastern desert had become the third-largest population center in the country.

Tens of thousands of Malians arrived here in 2012, when extremists and separatists overran much of their country, and the camp continued to grow over the next decade as Mali lurched from one crisis to the next. But the exodus last year was unprecedented; there are now some 149 000 people in and around Mbera - triple the number in 2023, according to the United Nations. The camp itself is long past capacity and sprawls in every direction.

In more than two dozen interviews, refugees who have arrived since 2023 said it was attacks by Mali’s military and its Russian allies - not Islamist militants - that made them flee. Al-Qaeda’s regional affiliate, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, controls large amounts of territory in Mali and competes for influence with a local branch of the Islamic State, which is smaller but more brutal.

Some refugees said that they had experienced intimidation years ago from extremists who sought to impose their rule but that village life had largely returned to normal before the army came.

“They consider everyone who wears a turban a terrorist,” said 45-year-old Cherfe ag Mama, who said his brother was killed by Wagner mercenaries in the Timbuktu region.

A women’s leader in the camp, speaking on the condition of anonymity, described a whisper network of women who have shared stories of sexual assault committed by Wagner operatives.

Russia’s growing presence

While Wagner’s initial focus was on central Mali, analysts say, the group has increasingly expanded its operations into the north - the center of a long-running fight between the state and ethnic Tuareg rebels, who have fought for decades to establish an independent state.

One of Wagner’s most significant victories in Mali was taking back the historical rebel stronghold of Kidal in 2023; the group suffered its largest setback last summer, losing dozens of men in a battle with Tuareg fighters near the Algerian border.

Analysts said the losses were controversial in Russia, and prompted questions about the future of the group in Africa. But in recent months, there has been a spike in military equipment coming from Russia into Mali, according to analysts and visuals.

Jennifer Jun, an associate fellow for imagery analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said satellite images show signs of recent expansion at a military base at Bamako’s Modibo Keita International Airport, where Wagner has been known to operate since 2021.

There have also been more recruitment efforts by Wagner, and more chatter on social media from the mercenaries themselves.

Additional reporting by Cahlan reported from Washington. Ely Cheikh Mohamed Vadel, Issa ag Mohamed and Walid ag Menani in Mauritania contributed to this report.

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Wagner mercenaries in campaign of terror in Mali